The Month Ahead

(Long Range)

 

Issued: Sunday 29 June, 2008 11:39 AM

A more hopeful sign of an improvement in summer weather

In previous forecasts the indications all pointed to perhaps the 'best' chance of seeing something akin to summer during the opening stages of July. Thankfully that remains the case and indeed in the short term there is likely to be some very warm, perhaps locally hot conditions; but will it last?
The prospects for July do however look somewhat better for the arrival of summer, especially if you live in the southern half of the UK where higher pressure will at times make the chances of dry and sunny conditions greater. Further to the north and west a flow mainly off the Atlantic from the west or southwest will always bring the risk of cloudier and showery conditions from time to time.
Initially the summer of 2008 has proved to be rather disappointing and has taken its time to get going, however I'm forever hopeful that the forecast patterns for August and more especially September look quite favourable, the next couple of weeks will probably be the 'make or break' time for the remainder of summer.

*05/07 - 11/07*
High pressure may be in control across the southern half of the UK, situated close to the southeast a rather warm, mainly light flow covering the bulk of the country, perhaps a more westerly breeze across the far north. Mainly dry and warm over England and Wales with some good sunny spells and just an isolated shower or two, more in the way of cloud across Scotland and Northern Ireland with the greater risk of showers. High pressure should be maintained over the southern half of the UK where it'll remain mainly dry, perhaps increasing cloud later with showers over northern England. Northern Britain is likely to see much more cloud with outbreaks of rain or showers and feeling a bit cooler and fresher.

* 12/07 - 18/07*
A chance here that conditions will slip back to rather mixed, possibly rather unsettled weather. Low pressure is indicated to move into the UK from off the Atlantic, a freshening breeze with push outbreaks of rain and cloud through all areas, turning showery as it moves into southern England. A much cooler and fresher week for all areas, some sunny spells but also heavy and thundery showers are likely to develop, rather breezy at times especially across the north and west. Winds will ease through the week as low pressure fills and moves away to the northeast, a fresh, showery north-westerly breeze establishing across all areas, showers dying away from the west as pressure rises in mid-Atlantic.

*19/07 - 25/07*
High pressure to the west is expected to build into the UK, initially as a ridge then latterly as a developing area of high pressure slowly drifting into the country. Many areas will remain mostly dry and fine through the first half of the period, good sunny spells with light and variable winds will make it feel rather warm and increasingly humid. Very warm, locally hot by the end of the period, thickening cloud to the west and an increasing southerly flow will push cloud and thundery showers eastward through western districts. A thundery breakdown will edge erratically eastward through western and central areas, finally clearing the east late in the period. All areas will become fresher and cooler with a breeze from the west, a scattering of showers moving into the west and northwest.

*26/07 - 31/07*
Although initially showery and mixed, the prospects are for pressure to be on the rise. A mainly light west to north-westerly flow covering the whole of the UK will bring one or two showers to the west, otherwise mainly dry later. All areas are expected to become dry and mainly fine, a light north-westerly flow continuing through to the end of the period, feeling pleasantly warm in the sunny spots