Seasonal Outlook

Winter 2011/2012 IOW headline: It'll be all Wight!

The winter forecast is especially difficult, everyone wants to know how cold it will become when, how much and how long we can expect Snow for. Looking around the shops at the vast amount of snow boots on sale this year not to mention sledges, Snow shovels and emergency winter car kits, this years Winter forecast could almost write itself! It is important to remember that a number of Forecasting factors have been used to produce this forecast including the latest NAO data, (North Atlantic Oscillation) Jet stream forecast, El Nino and Gulf Stream data. We have also taken in to account the Winter "Trend" over the last Five years and of course our own Atmospheric model data here at Wroxall Weather. The Meteorological Winter forecast is below.

Temperature
Mean temperatures are expected to be close to or below average.

Precipitation
Precipitation levels are expected to be close to or slightly above average.

Chance of Snow disruption
The chance of Snow disrupting the Island for 5 days or more is: 95%

Overview

An unseasonably mild but changeable start to Winter 2011/12, with no noticeable cold spell until mid month (December). A mixture of cloudy and windy conditions to start and throughout the Christmas period followed by a more settled outlook as we get in to January. Its not until the Jet Stream finally settles in to position and takes hold allowing an Arctic setup, with that we see the wind change and our First real glimpse of Winter. As this synoptic change and blocking pattern becomes more dominate so will sustained cold Northerly winds, temperatures will struggle to climb above 0°c by day, and will fall well below at night. Ground and air frosts will become more widespread. By the end of the First week in January we could see our First heavy Snowfall, over the next Three weeks several inches are possible (more detail to follow). It isn't until February the worst of the Snow is expected, some Twelve inches could fall in the First week alone. As the temperature plummets and the wind shifts to a more NE direction, drifting Snow could cause a real problem as the wind strengthens for a time. Daytime temperatures of -1°c and night time of -7°c are not un-realistic. The end of the month see's temperatures rising thanks to a weak low pressure system but, as high pressure builds again to the North so does the chance of more wintry precipitation. Winter's last gasp. Cold weather will continue to push back Spring well in to April.

Forecast Issued 1st December 2011

Forecast Updated 1/12/11 8:52 AM

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The old Appuldurcombe gate house Winter 2010

The forecast will be checked on a regular basis for accuracy and adjusted if necessary.

The seasonal outlook is updated every three months. Forecast availability is: Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn -

September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

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