The Month Ahead

Issued: Thursday 7 January, 2010 8:54 AM

There is still a good deal of evidence to suggest that winter 2009/10 is likely to shape up as one which many of us will remember. The immediate outlook is for wintry and rather cold conditions to remain in force through the New Year period and perhaps into the middle of January.
The wintry conditions may then relent temporarily as less cold weather establishes across all areas and high pressure takes control of the pattern, although the indications for the extended outlook is rather less clear cut.
The further outlook is really uncertain as the forecast hangs on where and if high pressure settles through the middle of January, when the scales will 'tip', at this point all the evidence is loaded into the cold side?

*09/01/10 - 15/01/10*
High pressure should still be in control to the north or northwest with lower pressure indicated to be established to the south or southwest a rather cold feed of Continental or Arctic air continuing to affect the whole of the British Isles. Precipitation will always generally be of a wintry nature across the whole country and there's always the threat of longer spells of wintry weather as disturbances run through the flow or milder air encroaches from the south or southwest. Overnight frost will be widespread and this will persist in some areas through the day, it'll be cold generally although some south-western coastal areas will be somewhat less cold.
Northern Britain should see the best of any sunshine available as higher pressure will be building across Scotland and Northern Ireland where too it'll be mainly dry especially later in the week as showers become confined to southern Britain.


*16/01/10 - 21/01/10*
There is an indication here that high pressure will build across the UK will all areas becoming settled, fine and cold, typical mid-winter anticyclonic setting in, so mainly dry with an increasing risk of persistent fog through central Britain as winds fall light.
I have to say at this point onwards the confidence decreases quite dramatically as it will be crucial as to the eventual 'drift' of this rather large high pressure and therefore the resultant flow across the air. There is a conflict in the pattern as to where it'll settle, the forecast from here on in has been weighted towards the wintrier, colder side and perhaps more 'pessimistic' side of the scale, the situation will have to be monitored carefully in future updates.
There is some hint that high pressure may slip to the east or southeast, the flow swinging into a less cold southerly to south-easterly direction, conditions perhaps easing form the wintry side, although still rather chilly, dull and overcast for a time. However, this forecast is weighted more toward high pressure remaining in situ to the west or northwest, therefore the resultant light flow will remain from a chill northerly or north-westerly direction, the cold conditions holding firm.

*22/01/10 - 28/01/10*
High pressure looks like holding firm to the west-northwest and with low pressure pushing across the south, a strengthening easterly to south-easterly flow affecting southern and central Britain with the threat of rain, sleet and snow tracking across England and Wales, whilst the north remains mainly fine under a ridge of high pressure.
As low pressure moves away to the east, a recovery in pressure is anticipated with an anticyclone slipping into the UK, all areas becoming drier and brighter but cold. Overnight frost and fog could become a problem and reluctant to clear in some areas. Sunny spells where this does clear but cold everywhere, winds mainly light and variable.
At last there's a hint that less cold conditions may begin to affect northern Britain as a slack westerly to south-westerly drift comes around the northern flank of persistent high pressure over the UK. This however may be limited and short-lived and there's little sign of this ever reaching southern and central Britain.

*29/01/10 - 04/02/10*
It looks as though high pressure will remain in control and perhaps strengthen its influence through this period across the whole country.
It should remain mostly fine and cold throughout the period with winds mainly light and variable. Overnight mist and fog will be slow to clear during the day, frost too slow to lift so it'll be remaining generally cold throughout, some sunshine where this clears.
Western areas may be milder as a strengthening southerly breeze heralds the arrival of cloud, rain and sleet, which will make erratic westward progress.

*05/02/10 - 09/02/10*
Low pressure looks like taking control to the west, how much eastward progress this and its associated milder weather makes is uncertain, any improvement is likely to be erratic and slow.
A cold and strengthening south-easterly breeze looks set to affect the southern and central slice of the UK, with the transition to any possible milder weather likely to be rather 'messy'. It may be that this milder attempt 'fails' and slips away to the south, the country remaining rather cold with a wintry mix of weather holding

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