Weather forecasts provide critical information about the expected weather conditions for a certain period of time ahead and a certain location. Forecasts may be also prepared for a particular area, or route between two locations. There are many different techniques involved in weather forecasting, from relatively simple observation of the sky to highly complex numerical models run on powerful supercomputers, such as the famous Cray computer.

Weather forecast can be for the next one to five days (short-term forecasts), next week or ten days (medium-range forecasts), or next few weeks or months (long-range forecasts). Last but not least there are seasonal forecasts , trying to predict the expected average weather conditions for a wh ole season. The accuracy of weather forecasts however, falls significantly beyond about 10 days. Weather forecasting remains a complex business, because the weather can be so chaotic and unpredictable.


Short-term forecasts, e.g. WeatherOnline's UK & Ireland summary, are carried out by synoptic meteorologists, based on the standard methods of weather analysis and numerical weather prediction. Medium- and long-range forecasts are usually based on ensemble-technique forecasts. A computer simulation is run several times with slightly different initial conditions. Ensemble forecasts are helping to estimate the probability or confidence of a particular forecast.


With a little understanding of how the air moves and how clouds and rain form, some prediction can be made yourself by simply observing the sky overhead, observing wind direction and noting the temperature and humidity of the air. For example, an abundance of thin high clouds (cirrus clouds) which gradually thicken to lower level clouds on the horizon is a typical indicator for the warm front of an approaching depression, and usually means rain and wind.


Better predictions of weather require an understanding of the isobaric patterns associated with fronts and depressions, anticyclones and high-pressure ridges. Isobars are lines of equal pressure plotted on a synoptic chart. Isobaric patterns of pressure are still the most common way to understand the movement of high- and low-pressure areas, indicating an approaching front or depression.

Tropical Rain Forest

Weather Facts

Forecasting weather

 

 

Advection
Air masses and their sources
Air-mass Thunderstorm
Anticyclone
Atmosphere - Diagram
Average rainfall over England and Wales
Beaufort Scale
Blizzard
Cape
Central England Temperature
Cold low
Convection
Coriolis effect
Dew Point
Dew
Discovery of the Jet Stream
Drifting snow
Drought
Earth's Atmosphere
El Nino
Flash Flood
Fog and Mist
Forecasting weather
Frost hollow
Fujita Tornado Scale
Funnel cloud
Glaze and Black Ice
Grass Minimum Temperature
Hail
Hailstorms in Britain
Highs and Lows and Winds
History of Hurricane Names
Hoar Frost
Humidity
Jack Frost
Key to our weather symbols
Latent Heat
Millibar and hectopascal
North Atlantic Drift (Gulf Stream)
Precipitation Map
Rain gauge
Sounding
Stevenson Screen
Stratosphere
Surface wind
Swell
Thunderstorm Probability
Thunderstorms
Troposphere
Troposphere - Diagram
UV Index
Ultraviolet radiation
What does it mean?
Why Skies are Blue
Why Thunder Rumbles